Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Lucas Krull from EV Insight

Lucas KrullReceiving Yards

Right now, Lucas Krull’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (-135) after it opened @ 14.5 (-120).

Pros

The Broncos may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
This year, the shaky Chargers defense has given up a massive 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-most in the NFL.
The Chargers pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.6%) versus tight ends this year (78.6%).

Cons

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards