Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -14-point underdogs.
The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
With an elite 75.8% Route% (88th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas stands as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the league.
Logan Thomas’s 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year reflects a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 25.0 rate.

Cons

The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 45.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco’s LB corps has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards