Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. 49ers
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -14-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
- With an elite 75.8% Route% (88th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas stands as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the league.
- Logan Thomas’s 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year reflects a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 25.0 rate.
Cons
- The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 45.0) vs. tight ends this year.
- The 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the league.
- As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco’s LB corps has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
