Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jelani Woods from EV Insight

Jelani WoodsReceiving Yards

Right now, Jelani Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-142) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup quarterback Nick Foles in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jelani Woods to garner 4.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
The New York Giants defense has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) versus tight ends this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Jelani Woods has been among the weakest TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards