NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-103/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-127) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this game, Ja’Marr Chase is projected by the projections to position himself in the 95th percentile among wide receivers with 10.1 targets.
- As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Kansas City’s collection of safeties has been terrible this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
- The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 134.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 6th-fewest in the league.
- The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.31 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
