Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-103/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-127) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Ja’Marr Chase is projected by the projections to position himself in the 95th percentile among wide receivers with 10.1 targets.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Kansas City’s collection of safeties has been terrible this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

Cons

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 134.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 6th-fewest in the league.
The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.31 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards