Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Greg Dortch

Greg DortchReceiving Yards

Right now, Greg Dortch’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (+100) after it opened @ 35.5 (-125).

Pros

At a -12.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are big underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on throwing than their standard approach.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (40.8 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Greg Dortch to be a more important option in his team’s air attack in this contest (14.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.0% in games he has played).
Greg Dortch has totaled far more air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Greg Dortch’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 9.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 4.50 mark last season.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.1% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Cardinals O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Greg Dortch’s 25.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year illustrates a remarkable diminishment in his receiving skills over last year’s 42.0 rate.
Greg Dortch’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 80.2% to 54.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards