Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saturday is when we start really heating up college football’s bowl season, with plenty of Power 5 matchups. This year’s Peach Bowl is a highlight, as Ole Miss takes on Penn State. Neither team has a ton of losses entering the contest, so that’ll make for a better product on the field.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ole Miss vs. Penn State
Noon ET Saturday
Penn State -4.5
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin enters this matchup 1-2 in bowls as the Rebels’ head coach. His team went 10-2 during the regular season, but over the last six weeks they had only two victories over bowl-eligible squads. For the most part, this roster is intact, as the seven players in the transfer portal are not starters. They will be without edge rusher Cedric Johnson (40 tackles, 5.5 sacks), who opted out of the contest. Also of note is that backup QB Spencer Sanders is out as well, so an injury to Jaxson Dart means the third stringer would come in.
Penn State
James Franklin is 4-4 in bowl games with Penn State. His team also went 10-2 on the year, but the losses came in the two toughest contests, losing 20-12 at Ohio State and 24-15 against Michigan. The Nittany Lions saw some changes in the coaching staff as defensive coordinator Manny Diaz took the Duke head coaching job, while the team also hired a new offensive coordinator, but he’s not going to be running things yet. On the field there are just two opt outs in DE Chop Robinson (15 tackles, 4 sacks) and CB Johnny Dixon (26 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT). Left tackle Olu Fashanu has already declared for the NFL Draft, but he was seen at practice earlier in the week which means he may suit up one more time although no one is sure how long that would be.
Game Thoughts
The Nittany Lions led the nation in yards allowed per game on defense and had a top three rush D. Replacing Diaz as the interim coordinator will be Anthony Poindexter, who is going to coach from the press box with co-coordinator Robb Smith on the sideline. Poindexter was actually the coordinator for this team in the 2022 Outback Bowl, which was a game they won 24-10. It’s a great sign that a lot of the other starters that declared for the draft are playing in this game because it means they will be focused and ready. Ole Miss is 15th in total offense, so it’ll be a challenge for Penn State to prepare for especially if they can get the run game going with Quinshon Judkins.
The more intriguing matchup is Penn State’s offense vs. Ole Miss’ defense. Drew Allar may have had 23 touchdown passes to just one interception, but he also went only 28 of 64 for 261 yards in the team’s two losses. Pete Golding is going to mix up the coverages as he tries to force the Nittany Lions to be a one-dimensional offense. His group struggled big time against the better opponents on the schedule, giving up 52 to Georgia, 49 to LSU and 35 to Texas A&M. Those groups though are better than what the Rebels will see Saturday.
The one thing we do know is that both coaches will not be afraid to tack on extra points at the end to cover the spread. I’m not a huge Franklin guy (especially in big games), because it just doesn’t seem like he’s a good in-game coach. With interim coaches alongside him, I’m concerned about continuity for the team out of the Big 10. I’m leaning to the over here and hoping two teams that have had stretches of hot and cold play enter this one hot. The player that I’m going to focus on here is PSU TE Tyler Warren. I went back and noticed that Ole Miss gave up a bunch of touchdowns and yardage to tight ends so I think Warren can go over his numbers.
The Picks
Put a third of a unit on over 48.5 points for the game, over 24.5 receiving yards for Tyler Warren and Warren anytime touchdown.
