Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Commanders defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
- In this contest, George Kittle is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 86th percentile among TEs with 5.6 targets.
- After accruing 41.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has seen a big uptick this season, currently averaging 56.0 per game.
- George Kittle’s 49.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 42.2.
- George Kittle’s 62.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a material progression in his receiving talent over last season’s 49.0 rate.
Cons
- The 49ers are an enormous 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projection model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.1 plays per game.
- The 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
