Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Commanders defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
In this contest, George Kittle is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 86th percentile among TEs with 5.6 targets.
After accruing 41.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has seen a big uptick this season, currently averaging 56.0 per game.
George Kittle’s 49.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 42.2.
George Kittle’s 62.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a material progression in his receiving talent over last season’s 49.0 rate.

Cons

The 49ers are an enormous 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projection model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.1 plays per game.
The 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards