Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be forced to use backup QB C.J. Beathard in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
With a 65.5% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.82 seconds per snap.
The model projects Evan Engram to garner 8.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
Evan Engram has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this season (23.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.6%).

Cons

The Jaguars are a giant 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Evan Engram’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, accumulating just 4.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.00 mark last year.
The Panthers defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 43.0) to tight ends this year.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Carolina’s unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards