Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-110).
Pros
- A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The projections expect the Dolphins to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 0.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- Durham Smythe has run fewer routes this season (71.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (27.1%).
- Durham Smythe’s 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a material boost in his receiving skills over last season’s 11.0 mark.
Cons
- The projections expect the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (only 55.7 per game on average).
- The Miami O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- This year, the imposing Ravens defense has conceded a feeble 45.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 7th-best in football.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus TEs this year, giving up 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
