Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Steelers may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph.
- This week’s spread indicates a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
- The projections expect Diontae Johnson to accrue 7.1 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Diontae Johnson has posted a whopping 92.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Diontae Johnson’s 67.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the league: 91st percentile for wideouts.
Cons
- The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
- Diontae Johnson’s 57.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a significant decrease in his receiving prowess over last year’s 61.4% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
