Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-117/-112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-117) after it opened @ 38.5 (-113).

Pros

The Giants will be forced to use backup QB Tyrod Taylor in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 132.4 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
In this game, Darren Waller is anticipated by the model to place in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.8 targets.

Cons

The model projects the Giants as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Darren Waller has compiled far fewer air yards this season (48.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).
The Giants offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Darren Waller’s 7.5 adjusted yards per target this season shows a meaningful regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 9.8 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards