Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Rams
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-117/-112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-117) after it opened @ 38.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Giants will be forced to use backup QB Tyrod Taylor in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 132.4 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- In this game, Darren Waller is anticipated by the model to place in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.8 targets.
Cons
- The model projects the Giants as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Darren Waller has compiled far fewer air yards this season (48.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).
- The Giants offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Darren Waller’s 7.5 adjusted yards per target this season shows a meaningful regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 9.8 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
