Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-105).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.7 total plays in this game: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
With an elite 87.6% Route Participation Rate (98th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert places as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Dallas Goedert to earn 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has accumulated a monstrous 31.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Cons

This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Eagles, who are a heavy favorite by 12.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.2 per game) this year.
Dallas Goedert’s 45.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his receiving ability over last year’s 58.0 mark.
Dallas Goedert’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 80.2% to 73.5%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards