Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 267.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 267.5 (-135) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
- Brock Purdy’s 265.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a substantial progression in his throwing talent over last season’s 151.0 mark.
- With a remarkable 69.0% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy places as one of the most on-target passers in the league.
- Brock Purdy’s 9.54 adjusted yards-per-target this year illustrates a significant progression in his throwing effectiveness over last year’s 8.0% rate.
- This year, the anemic Commanders defense has been torched for a massive 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in football.
Cons
- The 49ers are an enormous 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projection model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.1 plays per game.
- In this week’s game, Brock Purdy is anticipated by the predictive model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.6.
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
