Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Cardinals
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-105).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.7 total plays in this game: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
- The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
- With an elite 87.6% Route Participation Rate (98th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert places as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
- The predictive model expects Dallas Goedert to earn 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has accumulated a monstrous 31.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Eagles, who are a heavy favorite by 12.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.2 per game) this year.
- Dallas Goedert’s 45.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his receiving ability over last year’s 58.0 mark.
- Dallas Goedert’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 80.2% to 73.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
