Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

In this contest, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the model to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets.
This year, the deficient Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a staggering 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst in the league.
The Falcons linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Cons

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 46.0% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.8 per game) this year.
The Chicago O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a meager 3.6 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards