Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bears vs. Falcons
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- In this contest, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the model to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets.
- This year, the deficient Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a staggering 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst in the league.
- The Falcons linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 46.0% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
- Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.8 per game) this year.
- The Chicago O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a meager 3.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
