Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Calvin Ridley from EV Insight

Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards

Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be forced to use backup QB C.J. Beathard in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
With a 65.5% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.82 seconds per snap.
With an elite 92.9% Route% (91st percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley places among the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
In this week’s game, Calvin Ridley is expected by the predictive model to place in the 91st percentile among wideouts with 8.6 targets.

Cons

The Jaguars are a giant 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
With a feeble 58.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (19th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley rates among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to WRs.
Calvin Ridley checks in as one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 18th percentile.
The Panthers defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 117.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards