Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.7 total plays in this game: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
The model projects A.J. Brown to accrue 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After totaling 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has undergone big improvement this season, now averaging 120.0 per game.
A.J. Brown has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Eagles, who are a heavy favorite by 12.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.2 per game) this year.
This year, the fierce Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a measly 3.4 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards