NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-110) after it opened @ 263.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 36.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a fantastic 67.2% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 83rd percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (279.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run just 63.5 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 279.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a noteworthy diminishment in his passing talent over last year’s 325.0 mark.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 7.37 adjusted yards-per-target this season marks a material reduction in his throwing effectiveness over last season’s 8.5% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards
281
Passing Yards
