Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-110) after it opened @ 263.5 (-110).

Pros

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 36.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a fantastic 67.2% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (279.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

Cons

The Chiefs are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run just 63.5 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Patrick Mahomes’s 279.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a noteworthy diminishment in his passing talent over last year’s 325.0 mark.
Patrick Mahomes’s 7.37 adjusted yards-per-target this season marks a material reduction in his throwing effectiveness over last season’s 8.5% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards