Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 204.5 yards (+100/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 204.5 (+100) after it opened @ 189.5 (-115).

Pros

Justin Fields’s 191.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a noteworthy progression in his passing talent over last season’s 149.0 rate.
The Falcons linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Cons

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 46.0% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
In this week’s contest, Justin Fields is projected by the model to average the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 26.8.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.8 per game) this year.
The Chicago O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
163
Passing Yards