Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bears vs. Falcons
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 204.5 yards (+100/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 204.5 (+100) after it opened @ 189.5 (-115).
Pros
- Justin Fields’s 191.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a noteworthy progression in his passing talent over last season’s 149.0 rate.
- The Falcons linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 46.0% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
- In this week’s contest, Justin Fields is projected by the model to average the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 26.8.
- Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.8 per game) this year.
- The Chicago O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
163
Passing Yards
163
Passing Yards
