Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jake Browning from EV Insight

Jake BrowningPassing Yards

Right now, Jake Browning’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 238.5 (-115) after it opened @ 234.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Jake Browning to throw 37.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the 5th-most out of all QBs.
Jake Browning is positioned as one of the most on-target passers in football this year with a terrific 73.8% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Cons

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 5th-fewest yards in football (just 200.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.
The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 6.91 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards