Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 246.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
- The Steelers defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 2nd-most in the league.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
- The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- Geno Smith’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.4% to 65.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
