Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 267.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 267.5 (-135) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy’s 265.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a substantial progression in his throwing talent over last season’s 151.0 mark.
With a remarkable 69.0% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy places as one of the most on-target passers in the league.
Brock Purdy’s 9.54 adjusted yards-per-target this year illustrates a significant progression in his throwing effectiveness over last year’s 8.0% rate.
This year, the anemic Commanders defense has been torched for a massive 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in football.

Cons

The 49ers are an enormous 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projection model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.1 plays per game.
In this week’s game, Brock Purdy is anticipated by the predictive model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.6.

Projection

THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards