Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 236.5 (-110) after it opened @ 228.5 (-114).

Pros

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Baker Mayfield has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (234.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Baker Mayfield’s passing efficiency has gotten a boost this year, totaling 6.99 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 5.89 rate last year.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers as the 11th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 204.0 adjusted yards per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
This year, the daunting New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a mere 63.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.
The Saints linebackers project as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards