Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
- The Dallas Cowboys have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
- In this contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the projections to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.1 carries.
- Tony Pollard has been much more involved in his team’s running game this year (61.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (41.6%).
- With an excellent record of 63.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (91st percentile), Tony Pollard rates as one of the top running backs in football this year.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to run on 38.8% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 91.0 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
- The Dolphins safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
