Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Eagles vs. Giants
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-129) after it opened @ 54.5 (-119).
Pros
- The projections expect Saquon Barkley to accrue 16.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Out of all RBs, Saquon Barkley grades out in the 96th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 65.3% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- Saquon Barkley has averaged 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (95th percentile).
Cons
- This week’s spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are huge -14-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Giants as the least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 39.3% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Giants are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The New York offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
- This year, the imposing Eagles run defense has given up a meager 91.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
