Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-123) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Raiders to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 42.8% run rate.
- The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to accrue 19.6 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 3rd-best in the league last year.
- This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs run defense has given up a paltry 4.55 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 23rd-best rate in football.
- The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 27th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are big -10.5-point underdogs.
- As far as a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per play, the model projects the Raiders as the most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
