Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 16.2 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a more important option in his offense’s run game this season (56.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (34.9%).
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for a lot more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).

Cons

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.4% run rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.24 yards-per-carry.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards