NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Commanders
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 21.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among running backs.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in run blocking.
- Christian McCaffrey has generated 67.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his team’s offense this year, playing on 71.1% of snaps compared to just 60.0% last year.
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
