Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 297.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 297.5 (-110) after it opened @ 299.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.6 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for quite a few more yards per game (340.0) this season than he did last season (313.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
285
Passing Yards