WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 16.2 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been a more important option in his offense’s run game this season (56.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (34.9%).
- Rhamondre Stevenson has run for a lot more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.4% run rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.24 yards-per-carry.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
- The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
