Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Leonard Fournette from EV Insight

Leonard FournetteRushing Yards

Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-115) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 70.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.23 yards-per-carry.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his team’s running game this week (41.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.4% in games he has played).
Leonard Fournette has run for substantially fewer yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).
Leonard Fournette’s ground efficiency has worsened this season, compiling just 3.81 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards