Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 15.8 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has grinded out 55.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (75th percentile).

Cons

Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his offense’s rushing attack this season (59.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (78.8%).
Najee Harris’s ground efficiency (3.66 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (10th percentile among running backs).
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends project as the 3rd-best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards