Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Raiders
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 15.8 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- Najee Harris has grinded out 55.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (75th percentile).
Cons
- Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his offense’s rushing attack this season (59.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (78.8%).
- Najee Harris’s ground efficiency (3.66 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (10th percentile among running backs).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends project as the 3rd-best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
