Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Falcons vs. Colts
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-135) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a massive 60.3 per game on average).
- The predictive model expects Jonathan Taylor to earn 16.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 10th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons run defense has allowed a whopping 4.13 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 23rd-biggest rate in the league.
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Atlanta’s collection of DTs has been very good this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
