Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-135) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a massive 60.3 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Jonathan Taylor to earn 16.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Cons

The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 10th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons run defense has allowed a whopping 4.13 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 23rd-biggest rate in the league.
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Atlanta’s collection of DTs has been very good this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards