Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jerick McKinnon from EV Insight

Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards

Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chiefs are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.4 plays per game.
Jerick McKinnon has run for many more yards per game (21.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (165 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Rushing Yards