NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to notch 17.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his team’s running game this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.2% in games he has played).
- Latavius Murray has run for a lot more yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 11th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.24 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
