Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Devon AchaneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- While Devon Achane has garnered 26.8% of his team’s run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Miami’s running game in this contest at 38.6%.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year in run support.
- With a terrific tally of 74.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Devon Achane ranks as one of the leading running backs in the NFL this year.
- Devon Achane’s running efficiency (8.26 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (99th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The model projects the Miami Dolphins as the 11th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Dallas’s unit has been great this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
