First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Eagles vs. Giants
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-130/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (+110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-110).
Pros
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to run on 51.9% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- To the extent of a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.47 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- In this contest, D’Andre Swift is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 87th percentile among RBs with 15.3 rush attempts.
- This year, the strong New York Giants run defense has yielded a meager 4.89 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 31st-best rate in football.
Cons
- D’Andre Swift’s running effectiveness has declined this year, totaling just 4.40 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.43 rate last year.
- The New York Giants defensive tackles project as the best group of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
