Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Chuba Hubbard from EV Insight

Chuba HubbardRushing Yards

Right now, Chuba Hubbard’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects the Panthers to be the 5th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.2 per game on average).
In this week’s contest, Chuba Hubbard is anticipated by the model to land in the 97th percentile among running backs with 18.6 carries.
The projections expect Chuba Hubbard to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game in this contest (63.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.3% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (141 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.

Cons

The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Chuba Hubbard’s ground effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 3.93 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.73 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards