Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Cam AkersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Cam Akers’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to total 16.6 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to be a more integral piece of his team’s run game this week (63.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.8% in games he has played).
- The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The Rams have been the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 38.3% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Cam Akers’s ground efficiency (3.48 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (2nd percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
