Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Bijan RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Falcons vs. Colts
Right now, Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Falcons as the 4th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 138.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The projections expect Bijan Robinson to accumulate 13.7 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Bijan Robinson has grinded out 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (78th percentile).
- This year, the porous Colts run defense has conceded a massive 131.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 5th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
