Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chargers vs. Bills
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-120).
Pros
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 4.80 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers will be forced to use backup QB Easton Stick in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a massive -12.5-point underdog this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
- Austin Ekeler has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (58.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
