NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Antonio GibsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Commanders
Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-110).
Pros
- With respect to a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.41 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
- While Antonio Gibson has accounted for 17.3% of his team’s rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Washington’s rushing attack in this week’s contest at 32.0%.
Cons
- A passing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -3-point underdog this week.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to run on 37.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The Commanders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league last year in run support.
- Antonio Gibson’s 15.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year represents an impressive drop-off in his rushing skills over last year’s 35.0 mark.
- The Jets defense owns the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.02 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Rushing Yards
31
Rushing Yards
