Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-121) after it opened @ 49.5 (-121).
Pros
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by the model to call 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.
- Among all running backs, Alvin Kamara ranks in the 90th percentile for carries this year, making up 55.1% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
- Alvin Kamara has generated 61.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to RBs (90th percentile).
Cons
- The Saints are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to run on 39.2% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- With a very bad record of 2.50 yards after contact (15th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara stands as one of the worst RBs in football.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Los Angeles’s unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
