Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cooper Kupp from EV Insight

Cooper KuppReceiving Yards

Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
The leading projections forecast Cooper Kupp to accrue 9.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Cooper Kupp has posted a whopping 77.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among wideouts.

Cons

This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 4 points.
Cooper Kupp has been a much smaller piece of his team’s passing offense this season (26.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (32.1%).
Cooper Kupp’s 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a material decrease in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 84.0 rate.
Cooper Kupp’s 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a noteworthy regression in his receiving skills over last season’s 76.4% figure.
This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a paltry 57.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards