Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-135) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

Aaron Jones has received 51.8% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Aaron Jones has run for quite a few more yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness (5.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (85th percentile among RBs).
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Cons

The Packers are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 39.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards