WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
- Out of all running backs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 80th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 45.4% of the workload in his offense’s rushing attack.
- When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in football last year.
- This year, the stout Panthers run defense has yielded a puny 4.74 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 27th-best rate in football.
- The Panthers linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- The projections expect the Packers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Packers this year (a mere 56.1 per game on average).
- Aaron Jones has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
- Aaron Jones’s rushing efficiency has diminished this year, averaging a mere 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.13 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
