WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Case KeenumPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Case Keenum’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 206.5 (-129) after it opened @ 210.5 (-117).
Pros
- This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to see 136.0 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- In this week’s contest, Case Keenum is anticipated by the projections to total the 10th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.8.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.0 per game) this year.
- Case Keenum profiles as one of the least effective QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 5.67 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 20th percentile.
- This year, the daunting Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a feeble 176.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the fewest in football.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest level in the league vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year (61.9% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
