Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-135/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-135) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect Tyreek Hill to garner 10.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With a top-tier 31.0% Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill stands as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL.
Tyreek Hill has posted significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (110.0) this year than he did last year (92.0).
Tyreek Hill’s sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 70.8% to 75.4%.

Cons

At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
Tyreek Hill has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (109.0 per game) than he did last season (131.0 per game).
The Cowboys defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wide receivers this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards